Category: General

Q4 2022 Economic & Market Overview

In 2022, U.S. financial markets experienced unusual volatility due to the confluence of higher interest rates, inflation, Russo-Ukrainian war, and fears of global and U.S. recession, leading to significant losses in most asset classes except for commodities. However, it appears that markets may be stabilizing in the year ahead, as inflation continues to fall, the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle, and a U.S. recession is likely to be moderate rather than devastating.

U.S. GDP increased by 2.9% annualized in Q4 2022, exceeding prior expectations of 2.8%, and exceeding the 20-year average of 2.0%. Domestic consumption remained strong through the end of the year, with personal consumption (67.9% of GDP) being the largest contributor to quarterly GDP.

There are clear signs that the U.S. economy is likely to step into recession in 2023. Higher interest rates have started to weigh on business investment, private investment, and the real estate market. Home building and home sales have slowed down considerably due to the higher interest rates, as mortgage rates have more than doubled during 2022. Unemployment is still near historical low, but labor job market is showing signs of cooling off. The strength of the U.S. dollar, which rose by approximately 9% for 2022, combined with economic weakness internationally, will likely inhibit net exports in the near term.

Federal Reserve, Inflation, and Employment

The rate of inflation appears to be under control by the end of 2022, after a strong 2-year hike. Consumer prices rose by 7% and 6.5% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, but are expected to fall below 5% for 2023 by consensus estimate.

From a longer-term perspective, the inflation cycle in 2021-2022 seems more like part of a long-term economic cycle than an outlier. In the past 10 years from 2013-2022, the average annual increase in consumer prices has been 2.6%, which is still well below the 3.8% average price increase from 1960 to 2022.

The labor market remained strong in Q4, as unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in November 2022, which is near the historical low. However, it is clear that the market is slowing down. Hiring has slowed, as 263,000 jobs were added during November, the lowest number since April 2021. Unemployment claims have risen from their low in the first half of 2022, as workers who are laid off are taking longer to find new jobs.

The Fed’s final rate hike of 2022 was a 0.50% increase in December, as expected. This is after four consecutive 0.75% tightening moves throughout the year. The Fed remained firm on continuing its tightening cycle at the December meeting, however, the median expectation among FOMC members indicates that rates will rise to a range of 5.00% to 5.25% by the end of 2023, which is “only” 0.75% higher than at end of 2022. This data, coupled with recent inflation trends, seem to suggest that the tightening cycle is likely coming to an end in 2023.

U.S. Stock Market

U.S. corporate earnings have declined 5.7% during 2022, driven by rising labor costs and production costs, higher interest rates, and slowing nominal sales growth during the year. The consensus expectation is for earnings to be flat or down modestly in 2023 compared to 2022. A closer look at S&P 500 earnings data suggests that the rise in production costs, rather than a decrease in demand, was the main driver for declining earnings. This is evidenced by a sharp reduction in profit margins while revenue growth remained healthy and positive on average.

2023 Outlook

Higher interest rate, a recession (or the fear of one), and low consumer confidence will make the year ahead challenging for corporations and consumers. The Fed will likely continue raising rates until inflation comes down much further. Labor market appears to be cooling off but employment level is expected to remain strong compared to historical average. Asset values in general are likely to decline or stay flat amidst the weakening fundamentals and high cost of capital.

A recession in 2023 seems more likely than not at this time, but its extent may not be as devastating as some have feared. Corporate finances are in reasonably good shape and employers in general are not planning for excessive layoffs or downsizing (except for parts of technology sector). Household debt level is also low compared to the start of previous recessions. Inflation will likely be significantly lower by the end of 2023, allowing the Fed the possibility of quantitative easing. These factors altogether suggest a moderate recession if one should take place. Furthermore, if the current economic headwinds eventually lead to lower wages and easing monetary policy, they would also stage the U.S. companies for long-term growth.

Data Sources:CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, CoStar Realty Information Inc., Bloomberg,, Zillow Group, Redfin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & U.S. Census Bureau

For additional information, please contact:
Grandway Group
Tel:        +1 626-357-1200

February 7, 2023 by Ankush Agrawal 0 Comments

Grandway Attends International Builder Show 2023 in Las Vegas

Team members at Grandway recently had the privilege of attending the International Builder Show in Las Vegas, Nevada. This week-long convention, combined with Kitchen & Bath Industry Show and National Hardware Show, welcomed over 70,000 attendees, 20,000 companies and 1,300 exhibitors. The show was bustling with hands-on product demonstrations, inspiring educational sessions, and plenty of networking opportunities – an incredible experience for everyone.

Product launches showcased the latest advances in building technology, materials and products. From modular construction to energy-efficient appliances, attendees were able to get a first-hand look at what will soon be available in the market. Industry experts and manufacturers revealed their newest offerings and explained the features and benefits of these innovative products.

Education Sessions were offered in all learning levels and covered topics ranging from operations and management, to design trends and building practices. Experts shared their knowledge in their respective niches in the homebuilding industry. Our team walked away with the latest trends, newest techniques, forward-thinking business strategies and actionable items that can be applied to our operations right away.

Additionally, Grandway took home three silver awards at The Nationals award ceremony – Community of the Year, Single Family Detached Home of the Year, and Best Interior Merchandising of a Model Home. It was an honor to be recognized amongst some of the biggest builders, developers, associates and consultants in the homebuilding industry.

With such a wealth of resources attained through International Builder Show 2023, Grandway is equipped to offer our clients the best possible solutions for their building needs. Contact us today to start discussing your project needs with us!

December 29, 2022 by Ankush Agrawal 0 Comments

Grandway Gives Back for the Holidays

This holiday season, Grandway has partnered with two nonprofit organizations that support causes that are close to our hearts. Our mission is to help enrich the lives of those in need within our community and beyond with a focus on these areas: homelessness, youth and education.

Families Forward Learning Center, located in Grandway’s headquarter city of Pasadena, California,  provides free education and social services to low-income families with children. During the holidays, their ‘Adopt-a-Family’ program gives others the opportunity to spread warmth and bring holiday joy to families in need by donating gifts and essentials. Grandway adopted three families this holiday season, and our team had such a fun and meaningful experience shopping and wrapping gifts for each family member.

The second organization Grandway had the pleasure of partnering with is Lov Movement, a grassroots organization that does work locally and globally. This year, they built an innovative childcare and education facility in Kenya, Africa called Ascend Education Ecosystem. The center provides disadvantaged young children with a safe and loving environment to learn, live, and grow. Grandway’s monetary donation will supply the school with desks, whiteboards,  and other essential school supplies for two new classrooms opening in January 2023.

It was a privilege to help individuals and families in need during this holiday season. With warm hearts and enthusiasm, Grandway pledges to continue giving back through various efforts in 2023.

Happy holidays!

October 3, 2022 by Ankush Agrawal 0 Comments

Grandway Launches REIT at The House Club’s Elite Realtor Conference

On August 31, 2022, Grandway introduced its flagship U.S. REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) program in front of over 300 attendees at The House Club’s Elite Realtor® Conference, marking a significant milestone for the company’s longest standing business division.

Grandway’s REIT consists of a diversified portfolio of income-producing residential and commercial real estate investments throughout the United States. The investment strategy focuses on properties with stabilized cash flow, strong fundamentals, and value-add potential. We target markets with robust economic drivers, favorable demographic trends, and employment growth. Our experienced team undergoes a stringent multi-phase due diligence process to ensure superior risk-adjusted returns and capital protection for our global clientele.

Throughout the all-day event, Grandway welcomed attendees, answered questions, and handed out brochures and goodies at our lively booth. We also raffled out Tiffany & Co. wine glasses to two lucky winners! It was a pleasure introducing our flagship investment program at this successful conference.

To learn more about our REIT, please visit

Tips & Tricks For Fall 2020

Ohh Fall! What can we say other than Pumpkin Patches, lots of Pumpkin Spice Lattes, Halloween + Thanksgiving! Considering this year may be a little different than last year, it should not stop us from decorating, eating, and spending quality time with our loved ones.

Tips & Tricks For Summer 2020

Hello Summer – argumentatively everyone’s favorite season! From beach days, to long nights, and Summer Fridays, what more can for you? Considering we need to spend our summer cautiously; it should not get in the way of creating and making new memories with our families.

Staying Safe on Site During Covid-19

On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization declared the Novel Coronavirus Disease, COVID-19, a pandemic. Two days later, a national emergency was declared in the United States concerning the COVID-19 Outbreak. Older adults and people who have severe underlying chronic medical conditions like heart or lung disease, diabetes or compromised immune systems appear to be at higher risk for developing more serious complications from COVID-19.