Category: General

August 21, 2023 by Ankush Agrawal 0 Comments

U.S. Economy & Market Update Q2 2023

U.S. Economy

In the second quarter of 2023, the U.S. economy did not show much evidence of a downturn, as the growth rate GDP turned out higher than anticipated according to the latest data from the Commerce Department. U.S. GDP increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2, versus 2.0% in Q1.

The strong GDP growth was driven by robust consumer spending, which increased by 1.6% and accounted for 68% of all economic activity during the quarter. The solid job market and high consumer confidence supported consumer spending.

Other positive contributors to GDP growth were nonresidential fixed investment, government spending, and inventory growth. Nonresidential fixed investment reflected a rebound in business spending on equipment and software and increased intellectual property products. Government spending was boosted by federal nondefense spending and state and local spending.

One looming concern over economic growth is the housing market which slowed down noticeably due to high prices and high mortgage rates. However, home prices are showing signs of a rebound due to the lack of supply.

Federal Reserve, Inflation, and Employment

Crucially, inflation was held in check through the second quarter of 2023. Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, increased by 2.6%, down from a 4.1% rise in the first quarter and well below the Dow Jones estimate of 3.2%. This suggests that inflationary pressures have eased in the second quarter, despite the strong consumer demand and economic growth.

The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates gradually since 2020, aiming to keep inflation near its 2% target and prevent the economy from overheating. The Fed has hiked rates 11 times since March 2022, with the most recent hike bringing the Fed’s key borrowing rate to 5.25 – 5.50%, its highest level in more than two decades. Markets expect itto be the last hike of this tightening cycle, though the Fed has not made an official decision.

The labor market has also remained resilient in the Q2, as the unemployment rate in June remained at 3.6%, the same level as last year. The total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and wage growth also picked up, rising by 5.7% year-over-year.

Overall, the second quarter GDP report shows that the U.S. economy is healthy, with solid growth, low inflation, and a robust labor market. The Fed’s monetary policy stance appears appropriate for the current economic conditions, balancing the risks of inflation and recession. The outlook for the rest of the year remains positive, barring any major shocks or disruptions from trade tensions or geopolitical events.

U.S. Stock Market

The U.S. stock market rose in Q2, mainly due to its strong performance in June. Investors seemed less worried about inflation and more confident about the U.S. economy’s ability to cope with higher interest rates. The best-performing sector in the quarter was information technology, driven by excitement over AI and its related industries, especially chipmakers. Other sectors that outperformed were consumer discretionary and communication services. Energy and utilities lagged behind the rest of the market.

Data Sources: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg,, Zillow Group, Redfin, CNN Business, CNBC, CBS News, S&P Global, The Conference Board, Deloitte Insights, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, World Economic Forum, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

For additional information, please contact:
Grandway Group
Tel:        +1 626-357-1200

U.S. Economy & Market Update Q1 2023

U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy showed signs of resilience in the first quarter of 2023, despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the turmoil in the banking sector. According to the Atlanta Fed, real GDP is estimated to have grown at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.1% in Q1 as of April 26, lower than the 2.5% projected on April 18. Consumer spending, business investment, and net exports contributed positively, while government spending and inventories dragged on growth. The outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain, as inflation pressures, interest rate hikes, and political risks could weigh on economic activity.

Signs persist that the U.S. economy will likely fall into a mild recession in 2023. The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to combat inflation, affecting growth. At the same time, the tech and finance sectors, which have been driving economic growth in recent years, are showing signs of weakness with layoffs and losses resulting from changing market conditions and regulatory pressures. The labor market remains tight but is showing signs of losing momentum. Employment is expected to moderate over the coming quarters before rebounding in early 2024.

Federal Reserve, Inflation, and Employment

The May CPI report marked the smallest year-over-year increase in inflation since April 2021, with headline CPI rising by 0.4% month-over-month and 4.9% year-over-year. The index rose due to higher costs of shelter, gas, and used cars, but lower prices for fuel, new vehicles, and groceries helped to counter-balance. Overall, headline CPI is expected to fall below 4.0% year-over-year. After raising rates in May, the Fed stopped signaling more rate hikes and said it would make decisions based on incoming data.

Consumer Price Index by Quarter

Labor markets remained tight but show signs of moderating. The April 2023 labor force participation rate was 0.7 percentage points below the rate in February 2020. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000, while the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4%.

At its May meeting, the FOMC hiked rates by 0.25% to 5.00%-5.25%. The Fed removed an indication that future increases are warranted and instead shifted to a language indicating that decisions will be based on incoming data. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.50%. These data suggest we are on track for the tightening cycle to likely end in 2023.

U.S. Stock Market

The U.S. stock market was mixed and volatile in Q1 2023, with large-cap growth and defensive sectors outperforming small-cap and cyclical sectors. In the past three months, the S&P 500 Q1 EPS forecast has dropped from $54.05 to $50.63 per share, leading analysts to lower their year-over-year growth projections by 6.4% before the earnings season. One of the primary drivers behind the earnings decline continued to be shrinking margins. As inflation slowed, companies had a more challenging time passing along cost increases to consumers. This reduced their profit margins, which were at record highs in 2021 through 2022.

The debt market experienced a sharp fall in yields due to the stresses in the banking sector and the Fed’s dovish shift.  The energy market saw a rebound in crude oil prices after OPEC and its affiliates announced production cuts, while the precious metals market benefited from a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand.

Data Sources: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, CoStar Realty Information Inc., Bloomberg,, Zillow Group, Redfin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & U.S. Census Bureau

For additional information, please contact:
Grandway Group
Tel:        +1 626-357-1200

Grandway Hosts Investment Seminar on the U.S. Multifamily Sector

On Friday, May 19th, Grandway successfully organized its second quarterly in-person investment seminar, focusing on the U.S. Multifamily sector. This educational seminar provided insights into the current state of the market sector, key trends, headwinds and tailwinds, and market outlook. We also discussed the most popular regions for investment and shared our recommendations.

Key points from the seminar include:

  • U.S. Multifamily sector is the nation’s largest commercial real estate sector with over $3 trillion market value
  • Stable cash flow and downside protection
  • Limited supply: lack of land and increasing cost of construction
  • Increasing demand: renters are increasing
  • Inflation leads to rent growth
  • High interest rate drives demand

Grandway extends our gratitude to all our esteemed guests who joined and hope we have provided some valuable insights. Stay tuned for the next seminar in Q3 2023.

For additional information, please contact:
Grandway Group
Tel: +1 626-357-1200

Grandway Hosts Seminars on the Latest Developments in Finance and Real Estate

In March, Grandway introduced its investment seminar series with two educational events in person and online. The team covered pressing issues facing the finance and real estate industries and addressed growing concerns about the state of the U.S. economy.

The first seminar was held on March 3rd at the company headquarters in Pasadena, CA. The topic was “Protecting Wealth During Inflation and Rate Hikes.” During this event, we provided an in-depth analysis of the current state of the economy and housing markets, offered our outlook on primary real estate sectors, and discussed investment strategies and asset classes that are working in today’s environment.

The recent closures of U.S. regional banks – Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank – caused a stir in the financial industry. In response to the breaking news, Grandway organized its second event – a special webinar on March 24th to discuss the impact of these failures. During the webinar, we shared our views on the major story, overall outlook on the banking industry and strategies for minimizing risk.

To view the webinar online, please contact our team (

Grandway extends our gratitude to all our esteemed guests who joined and hope we have provided some valuable insights. Stay tuned for the next seminar happening in May.

Q4 2022 Economic & Market Overview

In 2022, U.S. financial markets experienced unusual volatility due to the confluence of higher interest rates, inflation, Russo-Ukrainian war, and fears of global and U.S. recession, leading to significant losses in most asset classes except for commodities. However, it appears that markets may be stabilizing in the year ahead, as inflation continues to fall, the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle, and a U.S. recession is likely to be moderate rather than devastating.

U.S. GDP increased by 2.9% annualized in Q4 2022, exceeding prior expectations of 2.8%, and exceeding the 20-year average of 2.0%. Domestic consumption remained strong through the end of the year, with personal consumption (67.9% of GDP) being the largest contributor to quarterly GDP.

There are clear signs that the U.S. economy is likely to step into recession in 2023. Higher interest rates have started to weigh on business investment, private investment, and the real estate market. Home building and home sales have slowed down considerably due to the higher interest rates, as mortgage rates have more than doubled during 2022. Unemployment is still near historical low, but labor job market is showing signs of cooling off. The strength of the U.S. dollar, which rose by approximately 9% for 2022, combined with economic weakness internationally, will likely inhibit net exports in the near term.

Federal Reserve, Inflation, and Employment

The rate of inflation appears to be under control by the end of 2022, after a strong 2-year hike. Consumer prices rose by 7% and 6.5% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, but are expected to fall below 5% for 2023 by consensus estimate.

From a longer-term perspective, the inflation cycle in 2021-2022 seems more like part of a long-term economic cycle than an outlier. In the past 10 years from 2013-2022, the average annual increase in consumer prices has been 2.6%, which is still well below the 3.8% average price increase from 1960 to 2022.

The labor market remained strong in Q4, as unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in November 2022, which is near the historical low. However, it is clear that the market is slowing down. Hiring has slowed, as 263,000 jobs were added during November, the lowest number since April 2021. Unemployment claims have risen from their low in the first half of 2022, as workers who are laid off are taking longer to find new jobs.

The Fed’s final rate hike of 2022 was a 0.50% increase in December, as expected. This is after four consecutive 0.75% tightening moves throughout the year. The Fed remained firm on continuing its tightening cycle at the December meeting, however, the median expectation among FOMC members indicates that rates will rise to a range of 5.00% to 5.25% by the end of 2023, which is “only” 0.75% higher than at end of 2022. This data, coupled with recent inflation trends, seem to suggest that the tightening cycle is likely coming to an end in 2023.

U.S. Stock Market

U.S. corporate earnings have declined 5.7% during 2022, driven by rising labor costs and production costs, higher interest rates, and slowing nominal sales growth during the year. The consensus expectation is for earnings to be flat or down modestly in 2023 compared to 2022. A closer look at S&P 500 earnings data suggests that the rise in production costs, rather than a decrease in demand, was the main driver for declining earnings. This is evidenced by a sharp reduction in profit margins while revenue growth remained healthy and positive on average.

2023 Outlook

Higher interest rate, a recession (or the fear of one), and low consumer confidence will make the year ahead challenging for corporations and consumers. The Fed will likely continue raising rates until inflation comes down much further. Labor market appears to be cooling off but employment level is expected to remain strong compared to historical average. Asset values in general are likely to decline or stay flat amidst the weakening fundamentals and high cost of capital.

A recession in 2023 seems more likely than not at this time, but its extent may not be as devastating as some have feared. Corporate finances are in reasonably good shape and employers in general are not planning for excessive layoffs or downsizing (except for parts of technology sector). Household debt level is also low compared to the start of previous recessions. Inflation will likely be significantly lower by the end of 2023, allowing the Fed the possibility of quantitative easing. These factors altogether suggest a moderate recession if one should take place. Furthermore, if the current economic headwinds eventually lead to lower wages and easing monetary policy, they would also stage the U.S. companies for long-term growth.

Data Sources:CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, CoStar Realty Information Inc., Bloomberg,, Zillow Group, Redfin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & U.S. Census Bureau

For additional information, please contact:
Grandway Group
Tel:        +1 626-357-1200

February 7, 2023 by Ankush Agrawal 0 Comments

Grandway Attends International Builder Show 2023 in Las Vegas

Team members at Grandway recently had the privilege of attending the International Builder Show in Las Vegas, Nevada. This week-long convention, combined with Kitchen & Bath Industry Show and National Hardware Show, welcomed over 70,000 attendees, 20,000 companies and 1,300 exhibitors. The show was bustling with hands-on product demonstrations, inspiring educational sessions, and plenty of networking opportunities – an incredible experience for everyone.

Product launches showcased the latest advances in building technology, materials and products. From modular construction to energy-efficient appliances, attendees were able to get a first-hand look at what will soon be available in the market. Industry experts and manufacturers revealed their newest offerings and explained the features and benefits of these innovative products.

Education Sessions were offered in all learning levels and covered topics ranging from operations and management, to design trends and building practices. Experts shared their knowledge in their respective niches in the homebuilding industry. Our team walked away with the latest trends, newest techniques, forward-thinking business strategies and actionable items that can be applied to our operations right away.

Additionally, Grandway took home three silver awards at The Nationals award ceremony – Community of the Year, Single Family Detached Home of the Year, and Best Interior Merchandising of a Model Home. It was an honor to be recognized amongst some of the biggest builders, developers, associates and consultants in the homebuilding industry.

With such a wealth of resources attained through International Builder Show 2023, Grandway is equipped to offer our clients the best possible solutions for their building needs. Contact us today to start discussing your project needs with us!

December 29, 2022 by Ankush Agrawal 0 Comments

Grandway Gives Back for the Holidays

This holiday season, Grandway has partnered with two nonprofit organizations that support causes that are close to our hearts. Our mission is to help enrich the lives of those in need within our community and beyond with a focus on these areas: homelessness, youth and education.

Families Forward Learning Center, located in Grandway’s headquarter city of Pasadena, California,  provides free education and social services to low-income families with children. During the holidays, their ‘Adopt-a-Family’ program gives others the opportunity to spread warmth and bring holiday joy to families in need by donating gifts and essentials. Grandway adopted three families this holiday season, and our team had such a fun and meaningful experience shopping and wrapping gifts for each family member.

The second organization Grandway had the pleasure of partnering with is Lov Movement, a grassroots organization that does work locally and globally. This year, they built an innovative childcare and education facility in Kenya, Africa called Ascend Education Ecosystem. The center provides disadvantaged young children with a safe and loving environment to learn, live, and grow. Grandway’s monetary donation will supply the school with desks, whiteboards,  and other essential school supplies for two new classrooms opening in January 2023.

It was a privilege to help individuals and families in need during this holiday season. With warm hearts and enthusiasm, Grandway pledges to continue giving back through various efforts in 2023.

Happy holidays!

October 3, 2022 by Ankush Agrawal 0 Comments

Grandway Launches REIT at The House Club’s Elite Realtor Conference

On August 31, 2022, Grandway introduced its flagship U.S. REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) program in front of over 300 attendees at The House Club’s Elite Realtor® Conference, marking a significant milestone for the company’s longest standing business division.

Grandway’s REIT consists of a diversified portfolio of income-producing residential and commercial real estate investments throughout the United States. The investment strategy focuses on properties with stabilized cash flow, strong fundamentals, and value-add potential. We target markets with robust economic drivers, favorable demographic trends, and employment growth. Our experienced team undergoes a stringent multi-phase due diligence process to ensure superior risk-adjusted returns and capital protection for our global clientele.

Throughout the all-day event, Grandway welcomed attendees, answered questions, and handed out brochures and goodies at our lively booth. We also raffled out Tiffany & Co. wine glasses to two lucky winners! It was a pleasure introducing our flagship investment program at this successful conference.

To learn more about our REIT, please visit

Tips & Tricks For Fall 2020

Ohh Fall! What can we say other than Pumpkin Patches, lots of Pumpkin Spice Lattes, Halloween + Thanksgiving! Considering this year may be a little different than last year, it should not stop us from decorating, eating, and spending quality time with our loved ones.

Tips & Tricks For Summer 2020

Hello Summer – argumentatively everyone’s favorite season! From beach days, to long nights, and Summer Fridays, what more can for you? Considering we need to spend our summer cautiously; it should not get in the way of creating and making new memories with our families.